Sue Bird Reveals How Indiana Fever Can Beat Lynx for Commissioner's Cup originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
The Indiana Fever are only 8-8 on the season thus far, but managed to arrange those wins rather nicely. Four of them came in Commissioner's Cup games, which put Indiana at 4-1 in the in-season tournament standings, and earned them the right to play in the final on Tuesday night in Minnesota.
There is something to be said for winning here, too. Players on the winning side of the tournament bring home $30,000 each, a big boost in a league in which the average player makes just under $150,000.
It will be the marquee matchup of the week in the WNBA, and of course, the top question is whether Caitlin Clark, who is struggling with a groin injury, will play. SHe missed the past two games with the injury, and is listed as "questionable" by the team heading into Tuesday.
Assuming Clark can go–she practiced on Sunday–there are some ways that Indiana can knock off the Lynx, who are a league-best 14-2 this season, and are 6.5-point favorites in the game.
Soon-to-be Hall of Fame point guard Sue Bird–a four-time WNBA champion and a five-time Olympic gold medalist–explained on her podcast what she felt Indiana could do to pull off the upset.
She went to the numbers.
"Can Indiana, who is 11th in opponents free-throw attempts, stop fouling Minnesota?" Bird said. "Because you cannot—you cannot—give Minnesota easy points. You gotta keep them off the free-throw line. Also, can Indiana, who is in the bottom half of the league in turnovers, limit them against a defense that is third in forcing turnovers? Those are two quick areas you can keep your eye on."
The Fever allow 23.3 free-throw tries per game. Minnesota averages 85.3 points per game, which is No. 2 in the WNBA, and shoots a league-high 46.7% from the field on the season. The Fever commit 13.4 turnovers per game, while Minnesota forces 14.2 per game.
That analysis from Bird, though, is reliant on one major factor: Clark's health.
"We don’t know whether Caitlin is playing, this is a huge, huge asterisk. It changes everything," Bird said.
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 1, 2025, where it first appeared.
